My Guesses for the Future
50 years of technology
10 years down the road:
Right now, there's some semi-cutting edge technology coming out allowing us to create an edited video to make it look like somebody is saying something they're not really saying. It's a lipsync technology that will likely be touted as perfect for dubbing movies in other languages. There's also a technology coming out which allows you to sample a person's voice and create totally new dialogue that mimics that voice. Combined, these two technologies will be able to effectively create a video clip of somebody saying something that they never said.
I think it's very important that we don't advance on this combination of technology, but I know if we try to suppress it, it's only going to start coming out in the worst sorts of ways. It has the potential to be used to create fake videos of politicians making statements they never actually made. It can be used to blackmail just about anybody, in fact. I'd say that in the next 10 years, fake videos and fake audio recordings are going to become a huge issue.
I think the next 10 years are going to be a sort of highlight for VR as well. It'll probably take another few years before we really get going with virtual reality and augmented reality, but it'll probably see a few years in the spotlight before dying back a bit and becoming a more obscure media form. I don't see it ever being a really big movie medium, but it does seem useful for some games.
20-30 years down the road:
I think we'll start to see technology of health and cybernetics go through a massive leap forward. Average life span will be much longer than it is now, lots of issues like Alzheimer's will have effective treatments, and genetic therapy will start to spread from China to more mainstream countries like the United States. This might also be when we see the singularity happening, where an AI becomes indistinguishable from a human. We'll also probably start to back away from non-sustainable food forms like meat, switching to lab-grown meat or a similar alternative.
40-50 years down the road:
This is when we'll have the capability of creating very lifelike robotic bodies. I don't think we'll quite achieve an indistinguishable robotic body at this point, but we'll have advanced beyond the rickety, uncanny creations we have now. We might start thinking about laws for artificial intelligences, giving them rights or not giving them rights, that sort of thing. There will be a lot of work for philosophers.
50 years of personal life
I see myself going into the animation industry fairly quickly out of school, working for a smaller company (either a video game company or a computer animation company.) After the first 10-15 years, I'll probably drift away from animation in some fashion or another. I've always had a pretty burning desire for writing novels, and it might win out if I get it off the ground during the first 10-15 years of work. Or maybe I'll end up writing for an art/animation magazine somewhere. I'm not ever going to get married, it just doesn't suit me as a person. Children are completely out of the question. I hate them dearly, and I don't think any kids of mine would be particularly well-adjusted. I'll probably have a few more pets than is normal. If I ever come into a great deal of money, or maybe when I retire, I'd like to work with animals. A big property sounds nice. I could do with starting a shelter of my own maybe, or just taking in the rescues that nobody else will.
What would my 71 year old self say to my 21 year old self to prepare:
Stop worrying so much. You're going to go through the next 20 years of your life very anxiously, as per usual, and it's just not necessary. Around the age fo 40, you're going to start not caring so much what people think, and it's going to make you a much happier person. Why not start sooner and throw away your insecurities? Don't be closed off to people so much. Don't try to hide away behind a front.
10 years down the road:
Right now, there's some semi-cutting edge technology coming out allowing us to create an edited video to make it look like somebody is saying something they're not really saying. It's a lipsync technology that will likely be touted as perfect for dubbing movies in other languages. There's also a technology coming out which allows you to sample a person's voice and create totally new dialogue that mimics that voice. Combined, these two technologies will be able to effectively create a video clip of somebody saying something that they never said.
I think it's very important that we don't advance on this combination of technology, but I know if we try to suppress it, it's only going to start coming out in the worst sorts of ways. It has the potential to be used to create fake videos of politicians making statements they never actually made. It can be used to blackmail just about anybody, in fact. I'd say that in the next 10 years, fake videos and fake audio recordings are going to become a huge issue.
I think the next 10 years are going to be a sort of highlight for VR as well. It'll probably take another few years before we really get going with virtual reality and augmented reality, but it'll probably see a few years in the spotlight before dying back a bit and becoming a more obscure media form. I don't see it ever being a really big movie medium, but it does seem useful for some games.
20-30 years down the road:
I think we'll start to see technology of health and cybernetics go through a massive leap forward. Average life span will be much longer than it is now, lots of issues like Alzheimer's will have effective treatments, and genetic therapy will start to spread from China to more mainstream countries like the United States. This might also be when we see the singularity happening, where an AI becomes indistinguishable from a human. We'll also probably start to back away from non-sustainable food forms like meat, switching to lab-grown meat or a similar alternative.
40-50 years down the road:
This is when we'll have the capability of creating very lifelike robotic bodies. I don't think we'll quite achieve an indistinguishable robotic body at this point, but we'll have advanced beyond the rickety, uncanny creations we have now. We might start thinking about laws for artificial intelligences, giving them rights or not giving them rights, that sort of thing. There will be a lot of work for philosophers.
50 years of personal life
I see myself going into the animation industry fairly quickly out of school, working for a smaller company (either a video game company or a computer animation company.) After the first 10-15 years, I'll probably drift away from animation in some fashion or another. I've always had a pretty burning desire for writing novels, and it might win out if I get it off the ground during the first 10-15 years of work. Or maybe I'll end up writing for an art/animation magazine somewhere. I'm not ever going to get married, it just doesn't suit me as a person. Children are completely out of the question. I hate them dearly, and I don't think any kids of mine would be particularly well-adjusted. I'll probably have a few more pets than is normal. If I ever come into a great deal of money, or maybe when I retire, I'd like to work with animals. A big property sounds nice. I could do with starting a shelter of my own maybe, or just taking in the rescues that nobody else will.
What would my 71 year old self say to my 21 year old self to prepare:
Stop worrying so much. You're going to go through the next 20 years of your life very anxiously, as per usual, and it's just not necessary. Around the age fo 40, you're going to start not caring so much what people think, and it's going to make you a much happier person. Why not start sooner and throw away your insecurities? Don't be closed off to people so much. Don't try to hide away behind a front.
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